Best Pull Rates Pokemon Packs in 2026

Pull rates are not equal across Pokemon TCG sets, and they are not random either. The Scarlet and Violet era follows a clear arc: generous at launch, compressed through mid-era standard releases, then loosened again through special sets and the Mega Evolution sub-series. Ascended Heroes, released February 2026, is the most generous Mega Evolution set to date. But "best overall pull rate" and "best chance at the card you actually want" are two different questions, and confusing them is where most openers waste money.

This is a ranked breakdown of every major set's pull rate data, organised by the type of opener you are.

Where the Numbers Come From

The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rate data. Every figure here comes from community pack-opening samples, typically 1,200 to 3,500+ packs per set, compiled by groups like TCGplayer, Card Shop Live, and Obsidia TCG. Sample sizes this large smooth out box-to-box variance, but they are still estimates, not guarantees.

Scarlet and Violet era booster packs contain 12 cards with two 'hit' slots: a reverse holo+ slot (where Illustration Rares, SIRs, and Hyper Rares appear) and a rare slot (where Double Rares and Ultra Rares replace your regular rare). Two slots, two chances per pack.

The S&V Pull Rate Arc

Understanding the era's trajectory puts every set in context.

The Scarlet and Violet Base Set opened in early 2023 with the most generous SIR rate of the entire era: 3.01%, or roughly 1 in 33 packs, from a 1,728-pack sample by Card Shop Live. That translated to about one SIR per booster box.

Then the squeeze. Mid-era standard releases (Paldea Evolved through Stellar Crown) compressed SIR odds to around 1 in 85 to 90 packs. If you opened boxes during that stretch and felt like hits dried up, the data confirms it.

Special sets and the Mega Evolution sub-series reversed the trend, each in different ways.

Special Sets: Highest Raw Hit Frequency

If you want the most cards worth keeping per dollar spent, two special sets stand apart.

Paldean Fates

Paldean Fates has the highest frequency of hits per pack of any Scarlet and Violet set. Its dual-slot structure (one Shiny Vault reverse slot plus the regular rare slot) produces roughly one good card for every two boosters. No other set in the era matches that frequency. For casual openers who want the dopamine of pulling something shiny on a regular basis, this is the set.

Prismatic Evolutions

Prismatic Evolutions brought SIR odds back toward base-set generosity. TCGplayer's 1,200-pack sample found SIRs landing at 1 in 45 packs, with a separate dataset pegging the rate at 1 in 53. Either figure sits well above the mid-era standard of 1 in 85 to 90. The set also introduced Master Ball Reverse Holos at 1 in 19 packs, their first appearance in an international set.

Mega Evolution Sub-Series: Getting Better Every Release

The Mega Evolution sets tell a progression story that generic pull rate guides miss. Each release has improved on the last.

Set	SIR Odds	Mega Hyper Rare Odds	Sample Size
Mega Evolution (Chaos Rising)	1 in 83	1 in 956	1,200+ packs
Phantasmal Flames	1 in 80	1 in 1,260	1,200+ packs
Ascended Heroes	1 in 70	1 in 540	2,000+ packs

Ascended Heroes is the clear standout. Its SIR rate of 1 in 70 packs is noticeably better than Phantasmal Flames's 80 and Mega Evolution's 101. More striking is the Mega Hyper Rare improvement: 1 in 540 packs, more than double the rate of the two prior Mega sets.

Ascended Heroes also introduced a new rarity tier. Mega Attack Rares appear at 1 in 29 packs, adding a mid-tier chase card between Ultra Rares and Illustration Rares. The trade-off: Ultra Rares dropped to 1 in 21 packs (down from 1 in 12 in earlier sets) because Mega Attack Rares share their slot.

Double Rares held steady at 1 in 5 and Illustration Rares at 1 in 9, consistent with prior Mega sets. The chase cards worth tracking include Mega Gengar ex SIR, Dragonite Gold Card (Hyper Rare), Mewtwo SIR, Clefairy SIR, and N's Zoroark SIR.

If you are buying Mega Evolution sealed product, Ascended Heroes booster bundles give you the best pull rate odds the sub-series has offered so far.

Perfect Order: The 3,500-Pack Reality Check

Perfect Order (March 2026) has the largest verified sample at 3,500+ pack openings from Obsidia TCG. The numbers:

Rarity	Odds Per Pack	Expected Per Box (36 packs)
Double Rare	1 in 5	~7.2
Ultra Rare	1 in 12	~3.0
Illustration Rare	1 in 9	~4.0
Special Illustration Rare	1 in 81	~0.44
Mega Hyper Rare (Mega Zygarde ex)	1 in 1,786	~0.02

That 0.44 SIR average per box means it is completely normal to open a box and hit zero SIRs. More than half of boxes will.

Standard Sets Worth Opening

Not everyone wants to chase Mega Evolution or pay the premium for special sets. Three standard Scarlet and Violet releases pull above their weight class.

Temporal Forces averages 3 to 5 full-art pulls per booster box, above average for a standard release.

Surging Sparks delivers approximately 4 to 6 full hits per booster box, with consistent results reported even from individual blisters and 3-pack blisters.

Obsidian Flames is the ETB pick. If you are buying Elite Trainer Boxes rather than full booster boxes, Obsidian Flames has a track record of rewarding that format.

Standard S&V expansions tend to have a hit rate of roughly 25% per pack. They pull rarer chase cards at lower frequency than Mega Evolution sets, but the baseline hit experience is solid.

Box Variance: The 15/15/70 Rule

Pull rates are averages. Individual boxes vary. PokéBeach's analysis of Ascended Heroes found that roughly 15% of boxes run "hot" with 2x or more the expected SIR/IR yield, 15% run "cold" with less than half, and the remaining 70% land close to average.

This is why YouTube pull videos skew your expectations. Creators open dozens of boxes and film the hot ones. The cold boxes where nothing landed above an Illustration Rare do not make the thumbnail.

The Specific Card Problem

Overall pull rate and specific-card pull rate are different numbers, and the gap is wider than most openers realise.

Perfect Order illustrates this clearly. The set has 6 SIRs in its rarity pool. Your odds of pulling any SIR are 1 in 81 packs. Your odds of pulling a specific SIR are roughly 1 in 487 packs. That is 13.5 booster boxes on average to land one named card.

The expected value math reinforces this. Across Mega Evolution series sets, average cracking returns roughly negative £0.65 to £1.20 per pack after selling hits. If you know the exact card you want, buying it as a single is almost always cheaper than trying to pull it.

Opening packs is worth it for the experience and for building a collection across a set's full rarity pool. It is not an efficient way to acquire one specific card.

Which Set Fits Your Opener Profile

Casual hit-hunter (maximise fun per pack). Paldean Fates and Prismatic Evolutions. Highest hit frequency, regular dopamine, and the Master Ball tier in Prismatic adds a unique chase layer.

Mega Evolution chaser. Ascended Heroes. Best SIR and MHR odds the sub-series has produced, and the new Mega Attack Rare tier adds a mid-range chase card at 1 in 29 packs.

ETB opener on a budget. Obsidian Flames for the best track record in that format. Check current ETB deals before buying at retail.

Targeting a specific card. Buy the single. At 1 in 487 packs for a named SIR in Perfect Order, sealed product is the expensive route to a card you can price-check on the secondary market right now. Use a card value scanner to confirm pricing before you buy.

For current prices on sealed product across Australian retailers, CardTracker monitors deals on booster bundles and ETBs daily.