Pokemon Card Pull Rates by Set, Ranked

Pull rates across the Scarlet & Violet era are not uniform. They follow a pattern: the era launched with relatively generous SIR odds in the base set (1 in 33 packs), compressed through mid-era standard releases (1 in 85 to 90 packs), then loosened again through special sets and the Mega Evolution sub-series. Knowing where each set sits on that curve changes how you spend.

Below is every major set ranked by community-verified pull rate data, from the most generous to the stingiest.

How Pokemon Card Pull Rates Work

The Pokemon Company does not officially release pull rate data. Every number in this article comes from community pack openings, typically 1,200 to 2,000+ packs per set, compiled by groups like TCGplayer and Card Shop Live.

Scarlet & Violet era booster packs contain 12 cards: 4 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 reverse holo, 1 reverse holo+ (the premium slot), and 1 rare. The reverse holo+ slot is where Illustration Rares, SIRs, and Hyper Rares appear. The rare slot is where Double Rares and Ultra Rares replace your regular rare. Two slots, two chances at something good.

The rarity hierarchy runs: Double Rare, Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare, Special Illustration Rare (SIR), Hyper Rare (Gold). SIRs and Hyper Rares are the cards that move pack value, so pull rate comparisons between sets hinge primarily on those tiers.

The Baseline: Scarlet & Violet Base Set

Scarlet & Violet Base provides the reference point. Card Shop Live opened 1,728 packs across a set containing 258 total cards (198 main set, 60 secret rares) and recorded the following:

Rarity	Hit Rate	Packs Per Pull
Double Rare	13.54%	~1 in 7
Illustration Rare	7.52%	~1 in 13
Ultra Rare	6.48%	~1 in 15
Special Illustration Rare	3.01%	~1 in 33
Hyper Rare (Gold)	1.85%	~1 in 54

A 3.01% SIR rate translates to roughly one SIR per booster box. That was generous by the standards of what followed.

Best Pull Rates: Paldean Fates and Prismatic Evolutions

These two special sets sit in a category of their own.

Paldean Fates

Paldean Fates gives you two chances to hit per pack: one in the Shiny Vault reverse slot and one in the regular rare slot. That dual-slot structure produces roughly one good card for every two boosters on average. No other set in the Scarlet & Violet era matches that frequency.

The caveat: "good card" in Paldean Fates often means a shiny common or uncommon, not necessarily a chase card. The hit frequency is high, but the ceiling on individual card value is lower than sets like Prismatic Evolutions.

Prismatic Evolutions

Prismatic Evolutions brought SIR odds back toward base-set generosity. TCGplayer opened 1,200 booster packs and found SIRs landing at 1 in 45 packs, twice as easy as the previous four sets which sat around 1 in 85 to 90. A separate dataset pegged the rate at 1 in 53 packs (1.8%), still well above the mid-era standard sets.

For context, that SIR rate compares favourably to Evolving Skies' Alternate Art V cards at 1.2%.

On top of the SIR improvement, Prismatic Evolutions introduced Master Ball Reverse Holos at 1 in 19 packs (5.2%), their first appearance in an international set. These function as a bonus hit tier that standard sets lack entirely. Hyper Rares (Gold) came in at 1 in 152 packs (0.6%), rarer than base S&V but offset by the Master Ball tier filling the gap.

The Mega Evolution Era: Improving With Every Release

The Mega Evolution sub-series tells its own story. Each release has been more generous than the last.

Chaos Rising

Data from Obsidia TCG breaks down Chaos Rising across every rarity:

Rarity	Hit Rate	Packs Per Pull
Double Rare	20.30%	1 in 5
Illustration Rare	10.66%	1 in 9
Ultra Rare	8.29%	1 in 12
Special Illustration Rare	1.21%	1 in 83
Mega Hyper Rare	0.10%	1 in 956

That Mega Hyper Rare (Mega Greninja ex) at 1 in 956 packs is the rarest pull in the current format. Worth noting: targeting one specific SIR, like Mega Greninja ex SIR, requires roughly 1 in 496 packs. Similarly, one specific Double Rare takes approximately 1 in 49 packs. The overall category rate and the specific-card rate are very different numbers.

Ascended Heroes

TCGplayer opened over 2,000 booster packs of Ascended Heroes and found improvement across the board:

• SIR pull rate: 1 in 70 packs, up from Phantasmal Flames (1 in 80) and Mega Evolution (1 in 101)
• Mega Hyper Rare: 1 in 540 packs, more than double the rate of Mega Evolution and Phantasmal Flames (1 in 1,260)
• Illustration Rares held at 1 in 9 packs, Double Rares at 1 in 5, consistent with prior Mega sets

Ascended Heroes also introduced Mega Attack Rares at 1 in 29 packs. Because these occupy space that Ultra Rares previously filled, the Ultra Rare rate dropped to 1 in 21 packs compared to 1 in 12 in previous sets. That is not a downgrade in total hit rate. It is a rarity redistribution: you trade some Ultra Rare frequency for an entirely new tier.

For more on which Ascended Heroes cards are worth chasing, see our Ascended Heroes chase cards guide.

Standard Sets Worth Noting

Four standard sets stand out for above-average returns, even without the structural advantages of special sets.

Temporal Forces averages 3 to 5 full-art pulls per booster box, which is above average for a standard release.

Surging Sparks delivers approximately 4 to 6 full hits per booster box. Collectors report consistent results even from individual blisters and 3-pack blisters.

Obsidian Flames is notable for delivering hits even from single ETBs. If you are buying ETBs rather than full boxes, Obsidian Flames has a track record of rewarding that format.

Pokemon 151 remains relevant despite being a late-2023 release. The set generously includes full arts across mini tins and bundles, and nostalgia keeps card values elevated.

SIR Pull Rates Ranked: The Comparison Table

Set	Type	SIR Rate	Packs Per SIR	Sample Size
Paldean Fates	Special	~1 in 2 (shiny hits)	2	Community consensus
Prismatic Evolutions	Special	1.8 to 2.2%	45 to 53	1,200 packs
S&V Base	Standard	3.01%	33	1,728 packs
Ascended Heroes	Mega Evolution	1.43%	70	2,000+ packs
Chaos Rising	Mega Evolution	1.21%	83	Community data
Surging Sparks / mid-S&V	Standard	~1.1 to 1.2%	85 to 90	Various

A few things jump out. S&V Base had the best SIR rate of any standard set. The mid-era compression (Surging Sparks and its neighbours at 1 in 85 to 90) represents the tightest the odds got. And the Mega Evolution sub-series is trending back toward generosity with each release.

Note the Paldean Fates entry. Its "1 in 2" figure refers to shiny hits broadly, not SIRs specifically. The set's structure is different enough from standard sets that a direct SIR comparison is misleading. It belongs at the top for hit frequency, but the nature of those hits skews lower in individual card value.

What This Means for Buying Sealed Product

Pokemon card pull rates should inform two decisions: which set to open, and whether to open sealed product at all.

If you want volume (lots of hits, plenty of trade bait, good dopamine per dollar), Paldean Fates and Prismatic Evolutions are the clear picks. If you want to chase specific high-value cards, the maths works against you in every set. A 1 in 70 SIR rate in Ascended Heroes sounds reasonable until you realise that targeting one specific SIR multiplies those odds by the number of SIRs in the set.

For Australian collectors, set selection interacts with product availability. Restocks are inconsistent, and prices on older sets drift upward once supply dries up. Buying current sets at retail and being selective about which sealed product you choose matters more here than in markets with reliable restocks.

Compare ETBs, booster bundles, and booster boxes on a per-pack basis before committing. Our ETB vs booster box vs booster bundle breakdown covers the maths. And if you are still deciding which set to rip, our best Pokemon packs to open guide ranks sets by both pull rate and card value rather than pull rate alone.